May 2011
4 posts
Outlook for copper
Copper has been beaten like a red headed step child lately, falling below the $4/lb mark. The chart hasn’t been pretty.
Today we saw strength in the good Doctor, as it finished up 2 cents. I’m not ready by any means to call a bottom in copper, but the early morning strength indicated buyers were willing to step in at these levels.
My best guess? We bounce around for a while around...
WTF is going on in Redmond?
News came out tonight that Microsoft is buying Skype for around $8 billion. Full details will be announced in the morning.
I just don’t understand what’s going on up in Washington state. What is Steve Ballmer thinking?
Skype hasn’t turned a profit ever, and according to the S-1 it filed when it was going to IPO, it said it might never turn a profit.
At $8 billion, Microsoft...
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Is dating harder in the age of social media?
Dating. We all do it, we all feel the need to look for that guy or girl who will make our hearts flutter, and our stomach be in knots in the good kind of way.
What I am noticing is that while we have never been more open in terms of technology, and the ability to interact with people we would never ordinarily meet or interact with, maybe it’s at our social detriment in the long term.
I...
Long live the USA
I never thought I would type these words: Osama bin Laden is dead.
I am beyond proud of our men and women who have given their lives in the pursuit of justice and freedom. God bless the men who went on the offensive today and killed Osama.
We may have our differences about how this country gets run, or certain ideologies, etc.
What we can all agree on tonight: We are all proud to be...
April 2011
7 posts
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Nail in the hammer for Stanley Black & Decker?
I’ve been long SWK for a few months, but should’ve been longer for that, as it WAS my kind of company. After the merger last spring, the company wad continually generating strong free cash flow, raising dividends, and enjoying strong moves on earnings beats.
The company beat earnings tonight, but the beat was due to a better tax rate. Margins fell YoY due to inflation (20 bps),...
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NFL lockout over soon?
Huge news broke a few minutes ago that Judge Susan Richard Nelson has ruled in favor of the players, thus effectively ending the lockout. The owners are expected to seek a stay on the decision, and Nelson isn’t expected to grant it. The decision will then go to an appeals court. According to an ESPN legal analyst, a decision on the stay could come within a week. If the stay isn’t...
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The Unthinkable Is Happening
S&P just revised the outlook on U.S. debt to negative, but reaffirmed its rating on the debt, at AAA.
This is massive news, especially on a holiday shortened week.
People have talked about this in gesture, but no one ever, and I mean EVER expected this to actually happen.
The commentators on CNBC are besides themselves with the news, and are stumbling over their words as they try to put a...
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Could The Woz Return?
There was a report out of Reuters on Friday that Steve Wozniak could return to Apple, if the company was so inclined to bring him back.
Personally, I feel that “The Woz” is the only person iconic enough to replace Steve Jobs, godforbid should anything happen to Steve #1.
The Woz said, “There’s just an awful lot I know about Apple...
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Planned Parenthood? Really????
It looks like the government is going to shutdown if a deal for the 2011 doesn’t get done tonight, as the White House has said that it will veto any short term spending bills.
Planned Parenthood looks like it’s the sticking point of this whole schlemiel, as ‘pubs don’t want to fund it, and the Dems do.
Planned Parenthood is probably being used as a scapegoat in this whole...
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A Tradition, Unlike Any Other
I’m going to make a more concerted effort to blog more, the past few months have been crazy, but I will make more of an effort to get back to writing.
Today is like Christmas Day for golf fans, as the Masters Tournament is just getting under way in Augusta, GA. For me, this means the unofficial start of Spring, and the unofficial start to golf season.
...
September 2010
2 posts
My Review Of Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Haven’t been on here in a while, been writing elsewhere, but I thought it was important to share my thoughts on Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.
I saw ‘Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps’ on Sunday, and I have to say it’s worth the $10 ticket, but not much else. Without giving away spoilers, Oliver Stone takes too many creative liberties with the...
Anonymous asked: How did you get involved in trading?
August 2010
1 post
July 2010
21 posts
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More on BP
A shot from the BP cam…
Where there is smoke, there is fire. Lawmakers have called for an investigation into BP’s activities in Libya, suggesting that they were part of an agreement which called for the release of the Lockerbie bomber in exchange for contracts to the Libyan oil fields. BP responded...
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What's inside?? Intel of course!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gMrG5lkYeg
Intel just murdered estimates, reporting that they had earned 51 cents a share versus analysts estimates of 43 cents per share. A year ago, they had reported a loss of 7 cents. Revenue rose to $10.8 billion, up from $8.024 billion last year.
In addition to hitting a home run by blowing past EPS numbers, the ...
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CS"Xcellent" and a mea culpa..
I perused through Alcoa’s report yesterday and I have to say, everything looked pretty good. I guess I should issue a mea culpa. I did say they would screw up somehow. I didn’t say they would miss (beat by a penny a share), just screw up at some point. Everything including guidance (which really is the most important aspect of an earnings report these days) seemed...
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I need that dolla, dolla, dolla is what I need...
Just read an article where the author interviews James Altucher and it got me thinking. US corporations are now more flush with cash then they have been in recent memory. This begs to ask: What is the best way to use cash on a balance sheet? Vote and let’s see what wins.
Poll: Best use for cash
Increase dividend
Share buyback
Mergers and acquisitions
Increase capex
Results: Als...
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Double A..beep beep.. D'oh D'oh D'oh!
“D’oh!”-Homer Simpson
Alcoa reports Monday and expectations are for them to earn $0.12/share versus a year ago of -$0.26/share. That is a remarkable growth rate and usually would lead to bigger and brighter things for most companies, right? Not Alcoa, I’d expect them to screw up somehow. I’m not saying they’ll miss expectations because...
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Anonymous asked: What is your favorite commodity?
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'Hollywood Accounting' Losing In The Courts →
I have a lot of friends out in Hollywood in the film business, so this was interesting to me to see that barely any movies ever turn a profit. This is a well written post on why Tinseltown is even shadier than “The financial capital of the world”.
headphonesnotrequired:
If you follow the entertainment business at all, you’re probably well aware of “Hollywood accounting,” whereby...
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Ouch...
Take a look at MSG’s stock price today. Getting hit pretty bad. I wonder what happened to cause this? ;)
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The King..
The story that’s on everyone’s mind. Will he come or will he stay? Lebron to the Knicks. It would make basketball relevant in this area again. I just saw a tweet from Jared Dudley saying he’s coming to the world’s most famous area. If that happens, I’d expect a big bounce in MSG shares on Friday after the announcement at the open and have it look to fill...
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About time I chimed in....
So you’d think an ex oil analyst would’ve had a thing or two to say about the BP situation by now, right? Well I’ve been thinking a lot about it recently but just haven’t sat down and formulated my words into an article. Sue me. (Wait, I’m talking about BP and litigation in the same article. On second thought, please don’t...
JohnWelshPhd: Permabears & Newbiebears out full... →
A very well written post from someone who I highly respect. It’s definitely worth a read.
At the weekend parties, at the beach during July 4th weekend, all I hear is how the stock market is going to crash. When it gets to herd mentality, my brain kicks in to gear and starts thinking, because that can only mean something unexpected is going to happen. I think I know what it’s going...
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Happy 4th of July everyone!! →
A great shot of the greatest country in the world. Happy 4th of July everyone!!
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More on the Australia mining tax situation
New Australian Prime Minister Julia Gilliard has cut the mining tax imposed by former P.M. Kevin Rudd to 30% on coal and iron ore earnings and exempted the rest of the commodities. The previous plan was for a 40% hit to earnings earned from all commodities.
As a result of the concessions made by the government, Xstrata has resumed a copper mine expansion and Rio & BHP are expected to resume...
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Hot off the presses
Wanted to get this out there now and I’ll have more on it as it develops. According to the WSJ, the Australian government has reached a deal with the miners on the resource tax.
More to come….
June 2010
15 posts
WatchIf you guys aren’t watching Todd Sullivan, you’re missing out. A value investor like myself, he does some of the best analysis and research out there. Definitely worth a looksie.
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Iron Man successful again
Elon Musk, who was the basis of Tony Stark’s character in the Iron Man movies, took his electric car company Tesla public yesterday and it had an incredibly successful day. On a day where we sold off 200+ pts, TSLA popped about 30% and is up another buck or so as of this writing.
For a company that’s only sold 1,093 cars, to be valued at $1.75 billion is pretty damn...
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Take foot, insert in mouth.
I just saw an article that says the Federal Reserve is telling people to ignore bloggers because economics is hard and the common person doesn’t have what it takes to grasp it. Of course this was published by some lunatic Ph.D working for the Fed named Kartik Athreya. This is precisely the kind of elitism that gives the Fed a bad name and why there is constantly...
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Must read for anyone who does their own research →
Scribd is an awesome site for research and this is changing the way we get research and could very well change the way big Wall Street brokerage houses do business.
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Aussie, Aussie, Aussie.. oy oy oy!!
This morning Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd stepped before a leadership vote, which allowed for Julia Gilliard to become the country’s first female prime minister.
The reason this is important is that many analysts are now expecting drastic changes to be made to the controversial mining tax that Rudd was going to implement a few months ago. BHP...
There's more to meet the eye here...
Anybody who knows me knows I am a huge Transformers geek and have been since I was a little boy. I was always fascinated with the robot aspect, the alien aspect, the cars. Optimus Prime was and always will be my favorite Autobot.
Yesterday it was reported that the maker of Transformers, Hasbro, is in talks on a buyout with PE shop Providence Equity...
Wednesday musings..
This should’ve been posted yesterday, but tumblr was throwing a hissy fit…
Some thoughts on the yuan revaluation, that ugly housing number and some commodity outlooks. 1. In the next month or so, the yuan floating won’t have any real impact on the market, but over time it should lead to higher commodity prices. I expect this to occur...
Half year rehash Pt. 2
How did I do???
Yesterday I recapped the picks portion of my end of the year column and did alright in terms of gains, nothing to retire on though. Today’s column is on the predictions portion.
Here’s the second half of that column..
Here are a few market predictions and general observations for 2010.
1. Zynga, the maker of popular...
Half year rehash
I did a post at the end of last year about some picks and predictions for 2010 and I thought it would be fun to see how those predictions have played out 6 months into the year. I’m gonna break it down into two posts, one today and one tomorrow simply because of length. Today’s column will focus specifically on the picks today with the predictions coming...
Anonymous asked: what's your email address?
Random thoughts about Apple
I was having a discussion last night with a trader who I consider to be one of the best traders I know and we were disagreeing about the Apple vs. Google debate in the smart phone wars. Apple has the best brand cache of any company in the world and while their marketing strategy with their ads and celebrity CEO is second to none, there is also an additional layer of cache for Apple that they have...
Beautiful Sunday afternoon, enjoy the day!
No stock related post today, it’s a beautiful Sunday afternoon. The World Cup is well under way, with my team playing tomorrow. Going to my cousin’s for her birthday today, enjoy some sun and some swimming and some barbecuing. See you at 9:30 tomorrow for the open. Should be a good one!
World Cup 2010 →
So many reasons to love Italian futbol, but this is definitely up there.
May the force be with you on the trade of the day
It kills me every time I see a Droid commercial to read the disclaimer at the bottom that the word “Droid” is property of Lucasfilms Ltd. Trade of the day is short Google, long Darth Vader.