Commodity Analyst

Copper has been beaten like a red headed step child lately, falling below the $4/lb mark. The chart hasn’t been pretty.

Today we saw strength in the good Doctor, as it finished up 2 cents. I’m not ready by any means to call a bottom in copper, but the early morning strength indicated buyers were willing to step in at these levels.

My best guess? We bounce around for a while around this level, before moving higher. It looks like China is intent on keeping inflation for the time being. China can’t afford to let growth slow too much because of the amount of people in poverty there.

Don’t think we see any conviction one way or another for a while though.

News came out tonight that Microsoft is buying Skype for around $8 billion. Full details will be announced in the morning.

I just don’t understand what’s going on up in Washington state. What is Steve Ballmer thinking?

Skype hasn’t turned a profit ever, and according to the S-1 it filed when it was going to IPO, it said it might never turn a profit.

At $8 billion, Microsoft is WAY overpaying for Skype. Probably by about $5 billion or so. I just don’t see how Microsoft can justify this.

I love Skype, I think it’s a great product, but I don’t see the strong events growth Mr. Softy does. Maybe I’m wrong, but for now, if I were a Microsoft shareholder, I’d be pretty pissed.

Ballmer, you got some ‘splainin to do.

Dating. We all do it, we all feel the need to look for that guy or girl who will make our hearts flutter, and our stomach be in knots in the good kind of way.

What I am noticing is that while we have never been more open in terms of technology, and the ability to interact with people we would never ordinarily meet or interact with, maybe it’s at our social detriment in the long term.

I know A LOT of people who are active on social media, and these people also seem to have trouble finding love. I myself just got out of a relationship, and social media played a cause in the breakup. While the breakup was my fault, I can’t help but wonder if I had been less active on social media if we would still be together.

This is not to say that social media can’t lead to good. In fact, I know of at least one couple that is still going strong, and they met on Twitter.

I also know of plenty of people who have gone on dates with some of their followers.

Perhaps we, and I include myself in this space, are just unlucky in love for whatever reason. I firmly believe that love finds you when you least look for it. Hell, I’ve met a girl in a nursing home. (Yes, she does have all of her teeth.)

Maybe these are my own limited interactions with these single people, but I wonder if their increased use on social media is playing a role in their (our) inability to hold onto, or find love.

Let me know what you think, I’d love to hear what you have to say.

Yes, I also realize the irony of posting this on social media ;)

I never thought I would type these words: Osama bin Laden is dead.

I am beyond proud of our men and women who have given their lives in the pursuit of justice and freedom. God bless the men who went on the offensive today and killed Osama.

We may have our differences about how this country gets run, or certain ideologies, etc.

What we can all agree on tonight: We are all proud to be Americans, and this is truly a historic, and momentous occasion for not only the U.S., but those who believe in freedom.

God bless the U.S.A.

I’ve been long SWK for a few months, but should’ve been longer for that, as it WAS my kind of company. After the merger last spring, the company wad continually generating strong free cash flow, raising dividends, and enjoying strong moves on earnings beats.

The company beat earnings tonight, but the beat was due to a better tax rate. Margins fell YoY due to inflation (20 bps), and the company didn’t raise the amount of cost synergies from the Black & Decker merger, which I was hoping for. I’m up about 12% or so on the position, excluding dividends, but I may be hitting the nail on this position, if I don’t like the price action tomorrow during the conf. call.

Price action will tell you how the fundamentals are being perceived, and in this 28 year old’s opinion, the fundies look to be changing.

Huge news broke a few minutes ago that Judge Susan Richard Nelson has ruled in favor of the players, thus effectively ending the lockout. The owners are expected to seek a stay on the decision, and Nelson isn’t expected to grant it. The decision will then go to an appeals court. According to an ESPN legal analyst, a decision on the stay could come within a week. If the stay isn’t granted, it could be chaos, as some 500 players are free agents. Trades, signings, dogs and cats living together, MASS hysteria!

One step closer to a 2011 season starting on time. This is amazing for NFL fans.

More to come

S&P just revised the outlook on U.S. debt to negative, but reaffirmed its rating on the debt, at AAA.

This is massive news, especially on a holiday shortened week. 

People have talked about this in gesture, but no one ever, and I mean EVER expected this to actually happen.

The commentators on CNBC are besides themselves with the news, and are stumbling over their words as they try to put a positive spin on this.

Gold is rocketing on this news, and we could see $1,500 an ounce by the end of the day.

Time for the Democrats & the Republicans to really get their act together and do something. 

Remember, there are 2 other ratings agencies, Moody’s and Fitch.  Usually when one ratings agency acts, the others follow suit.

There was a report out of Reuters on Friday that Steve Wozniak could return to Apple, if the company was so inclined to bring him back.

Personally, I feel that “The Woz” is the only person iconic enough to replace Steve Jobs, godforbid should anything happen to Steve #1.

The Woz said, “There’s just an awful lot I know about Apple products and competing products that has some relevance, some meaning. They’re my own feelings, though.”

Wozniak did say that he would like Apple to be more open, so that he could tinker with it, being that he’s an engineer.  But then again, so is Jobs.  Personally I like the way Apple’s ecosystem is set up, but I’m also not a developer.

Being a CEO for certain companies mean you need to be a celebrity, as well as someone who knows how to dole out responsibilities. Wozniak has already proven he’s a celebrity, with his appearance on Dancing With The Stars being the most notable one. 

You can not replace Steve Jobs as Apple’s CEO, there is no man on earth that could fill those shoes to the level Jobs has.  Tim Cook, who is probably the most likely replacement for Jobs, has done an excellent job in his absence.  In my opinion, I just don’t think he has the pizazz to be a salesmen, which is also a major job of being a CEO.  You have to sell your product and your company, and know the ins and outs of your company better than anyone.

I don’t know if Wozniak has the ability to sell as well as Jobs does, but I do know tech geeks (and I consider myself one) would respond well to him taking over the most recognizable consumer electronic company in the world.

Ultimately I don’t think Wozniak comes back to Apple full time, and probably not as the CEO, being that he hasn’t been at the company in such a long time, despite still receiving a paycheck from there.

It sure would be interesting and fun though to see The Woz back in action in Cupertino though, wouldn’t it?

It looks like the government is going to shutdown if a deal for the 2011 doesn’t get done tonight, as the White House has said that it will veto any short term spending bills.

Planned Parenthood looks like it’s the sticking point of this whole schlemiel, as ‘pubs don’t want to fund it, and the Dems do.

Planned Parenthood is probably being used as a scapegoat in this whole thing, at least that’s my opinion.  I can’t really believe that Planned Parenthood is going to cause hundreds of thousands of federal employees to furloughed for lord knows how long if Reid and Boehner don’t settle the issue.

There’s already been an agreement on $38 billion in spending cuts, which is damn near magical in Washington. Spending cuts just don’t happen, and it’s nice to see, albeit it’s a tiny fraction of the debt.

For the American public, DO NOT shutdown over Planned Parenthood.  It’s not worth it.  GDP will be cut, more money will be wasted by not operating, and it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, which is something Congress sorely lacks right now.

Get it done guys.